While Tim Cook has managed to curry favor with President Donald Trump, Apple has still felt the bite of tariffs — $800 million in added costs in its fiscal third quarter, to be precise.

That number was expected to grow considerably in this most recent quarter, with Apple guiding that its tariff-related costs would be around $1.1 billion.

We’ll soon see if it managed to mitigate those costs down below that estimate — or whether the impact was worse than anticipated. Analysts will also be eyeing Apple’s tariff guidance for next quarter.

With Meta’s Ray-Ban AI glasses selling well, Apple is rumored to be exploring its own smart glasses while it continues work to slim down its bulky Vision Pro headset.

When asked about the Vision Pro on Apple’s last earnings call, Cook signaled there was more to come.

“We continue to be very focused on it,” Cook previously said. “I don’t want to get into the road map on it, but this is an area that we really believe in.”

Apple is also reportedly working on some AI home devices, including one with a robot arm, as well as a foldable iPhone expected to launch as soon as 2026. Samsung, Google, and Huawei have already entered the foldable phone space.

Demand for the iPhone 17 lineup appears strong, according to third-party data, with the entry-level 17 and high-end Pro models the early standouts.

Apple’s newest iPhone lineup is outperforming last year’s models in both the US and China, two of its most important markets, according to data from Counterpoint Research. Sales of the iPhone 17 series were estimated to be 14% higher than those of the iPhone 16 lineup during the first 10 days on the market.

In the US, Counterpoint estimates that demand was strongest for the iPhone 17 Pro Max, the priciest model in the lineup, through the first two weekends of its release.

Don’t be surprised if analysts focus some questions around Apple’s capital expenditures and AI investments — it’s been a theme on other Big Tech earnings calls this week.

Tech companies are pouring more money than ever into AI, which has some investors worried. After all, the hot debate right now in Silicon Valley is whether we’re in an AI bubble…

Asked about capex growth on Apple’s last earnings call, CFO Kevin Parekh said that “a significant portion of the driver of growth that you’re seeing now is really driven by some of our AI-related investments.”

The thin and sleek form factor of the iPhone Air turned heads when it was introduced at Apple’s September event.

At 5.6 millimeters — Apple’s thinnest iPhone yet — the frame comes with a smaller battery than Pro models and no physical SIM card. To make up for what it lacks in battery life, Apple released an external battery pack alongside the iPhone Air, which costs $99. But Apple’s battery-rich Pro models, with top-of-the-line cameras, are typically the company’s most popular, and reports have begun to emerge that Apple is cutting back on Air production.

A Keybanc survey of more than 2,000 iPhone owners found weak demand for the Air model compared to the strength of the Pro and Pro Max. Three percent of respondents said they upgraded to the iPhone Air, while 41% went for the iPhone 17 Pro Max.

While Apple’s most recent quarter will only include a week or so of sales from the 17 lineup, execs will likely provide some color on how the Air is doing so far.

US shoppers discovered earlier this month that the M5 Vision Pro, a refreshed model, is labeled as being a product of Vietnam. A few creators noted the change online as they unboxed their new Vision Pros. It’s the latest example of Apple making changes to its supply chain for US-bound products to mitigate its tariff costs.

The original Vision Pro, with an M2 chip, was manufactured in China ahead of its 2024 release. Around the same time, Apple was exploring ramping up supply chain options outside of China.

Earlier this year, Tim Cook said Apple expects “the majority of iPhones sold in the US will have India as their country of origin” in the June quarter.

Don’t be surprised if Tim Cook leans into Apple’s work in the US.

Earlier this year, Cook committed to investing $600 billion in US manufacturing amid President Donald Trump’s tariff push. In August, Cook presented Trump with a gift, an American-made glass plaque set on a 24-karat gold base.

Cook has proven to be a savvy political navigator — and it appears to be paying off. After receiving the gift, Trump said companies like Apple “will be treated really well.”

Cook, alongside other tech leaders, joined Trump for a dinner event in September. The Apple CEO addressed the president in a speech, praising his efforts to bring more manufacturing to the US.

Earlier this week, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang gave an America-themed presentation during Nvidia’s GTC October keynote.

There’s an argument to be made that Apple’s slow start in AI hasn’t hurt it all that much — at least not yet. Yet with all the headlines around its AI talent departing, Apple would do well to reassure the market that big and exciting things are coming. One of those is a long-anticipated overhaul of Siri with Apple Intelligence, touted for next year.

Then there are reports of new home devices and AR glasses — all of which will need good AI. Don’t expect Tim Cook to break character and start gossiping about future products, but this would be a good time for a bit of extra candor.

Apple looks like it’s in a better position heading into its earnings report than it has been in a year, according to Angelo Zino, a senior equity analyst at CFRA Research.

Zino pointed to how investors now have more clarity relating to Apple’s regulatory issues and the potential impact of tariffs.

“Recent comments about tariffs tied to the company from the Trump administration make us feel much more comfortable about the margin outlook ahead,” he added.

Demand for iPhones also looks solid heading into the print. CFRA said it was “conservatively” estimating that iPhone revenue was on track to grow 6% for the current quarter and 5% for the upcoming quarter.

CFRA issued a “Buy” rating on Apple and a $280 price target, implying 4% upside from the stock’s current levels.

Bank of America has a strong outlook for Apple over the next five years. Analysts pointed to revenues potentially increasing due to AI and its possible impact on coming product offerings.

Analysts also said they saw “strength” in new iPhone demand, and estimated that total iPhone unit sales could reach 57 million for the current quarter, compared to consensus estimates of 54 million.

“Reiterate Buy on strong capital returns, eventual winner in AI at the edge & optionality from new products/markets,” BofA said on their rating of the stock.

Analysts lifted their price target for the stock from $270 to $320 a share, implying 19% upside from Wednesday’s price.

JPMorgan said it expected Apple earnings to “track modestly better” from September through the end of the year, thanks to strong demand for the iPhone 17.

The bank also said it expects Apple to post solid revenue growth in the first quarter of its 2026 fiscal year.

“AAPL shares are heading into the upcoming earnings print with a greater halo of positivity than any time in the past year,” analysts wrote in a recent client note, adding that they believed that chatter around Apple’s investment thesis had narrowed down to the strength of new iPhone sales.

Apple stock could be boosted by a few catalysts contained in its report, Melius Research said.

The research firm said it believed that the company’s sales in China would pick up over the near term. Profit margins could also improve on demand for Apple’s new lineup of iPhones, analysts said, adding that they believed Apple was “getting its groove back.”

“We think there is more to go as a beat and raise could be on the horizon when it reports,” analysts wrote of the stock’s momentum.”Bottom Line: Apple is on a mission to silence its critics. We see upside to sales in China into CY26 and momentum in new models overall.”

The firm reiterated its “Buy” rating on the stock and issued a price target of $290 a share, implying 8% upside from current levels.

Analysts at Goldman said they expect Apple to beat on earnings for the quarter, driven largely by strong demand for its new iPhones.

The bank estimated that iPhone product revenue could see a 10% year-over-year increase to $50.8 billion, compared to the consensus estimate of $49.8 billion in revenue for the quarter.

Apple could also see its services revenue grow 13% year-over-year, thanks to continued momentum across subscription services like iCloud+ and AppleCare+, analysts added.

Still, “key areas of debate” among investors include the sustainability of iPhone demand due to trade policy uncertainty, as well as risks to the company’s App Store revenue, the bank said.

Goldman reiterated its “Buy” rating for the stock and issued a price target of $279 a share, implying 3% upside from current levels.

Fourth Quarter

• Revenue estimate $102.19 billion
• Products revenue estimate $73.49 billion
• Mac revenue estimate $8.55 billion
• iPad revenue estimate $6.97 billion
• Wearables, home and accessories estimate $8.64 billion
• Services revenue estimate $28.18 billion
• Greater China rev. estimate $16.43 billion
• Americas rev. estimate $44.45 billion
• Europe revenue estimate $26.36 billion
• Japan revenue estimate $6.41 billion
• Rest of Asia Pacific revenue estimate $8.08 billion
• EPS estimate $1.77
• Total operating expenses estimate $15.75 billion
• Research and development operating expenses estimate $8.8
  billion
• SG&A operating expense estimate $6.96 billion
• Gross margin estimate $47.41 billion
• Cash and cash equivalents estimate $51.67 billion
• Cost of sales estimate $54.47 billion
• Total current assets estimate $144.92 billion
• Total current liabilities estimate $159.68 billion

  First Quarter

• Capital expenditure estimate $3.97 billion

  2026

• Capital expenditure estimate $15.03 billion

Source: Bloomberg

Amazon’s Prime Day event in October has become an early chance for shoppers to score holiday deals, and other retailers have even debuted their own versions. On Thursday’s call, Amazon could provide an early glimpse into how holiday shopping is shaping up.

Expect Amazon to play a big role once the holiday shopping season starts in earnest. About 73% of shoppers surveyed by marketing platform Omnisend said that Amazon is their go-to source for deals on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Amazon’s ad business has been finding potential growth opportunities lately.

A recent deal with Netflix will let brands buy ad slots on the streamer through Amazon’s own demand-side platform. The move rattled shares of adtech rival The Trade Desk after it was announced.

Amazon is expected to give a capital expenditures update on its earnings call this afternoon. Last quarter, Amazon’s capex totaled $31.4 billion, and the company said the figure was “reasonably representative” of its quarterly capex rate for the rest of the year. It’s largely driven by investments in AWS — particularly AI and tech infrastructure — and Amazon’s fulfillment and transportation network.

Capex growth is a hot-button issue across Big Tech. The following chart shows how spending stacks up so far.

Investors will be listening for any details that CEO Andy Jassy and the company offer about Amazon’s grocery business in light of a recent reboot.

In June, a memo obtained by Business Insider showed that Whole Foods, Amazon Fresh, and Amazon Go were being united under a single “One Grocery” operation eight years after Amazon acquired Whole Foods for $13.7 billion.

The company launched a $5 private-label grocery line earlier this month aimed at luring value hunters away from Walmart and Aldi.

Wedbush has high hopes for the tech giant heading into the call, maintaining a $280 price target, up from its previous target of $250 a share.

The firm’s analysts predict that it is poised for a breakout in 2026 and likely to shake off the volatility that has weighed on the stock recently. They expect Amazon to reach $99.6 billion in full-year revenue, and predict Q3 revenue of $20.1 billion.

“Heading into the print, we are most focused on AWS momentum and emerging AI monetization, rising operating margins supported by the mix shift to higher-margin revenue, capex requirements to support infrastructure and AI investments, and persistent growth within the advertising business,” Wedbush analysts wrote in a preview note.

They also cited several immediate-term catalysts, including savings from automation and robotics progress, and the commercialization of Alexa’s new AI capabilities.

Business Insider’s Chief Tech Correspondent Eugene Kim and Chief Correspondent Aki Ito will join Deputy Executive Editor Dan DeFrancesco to talk about Amazon’s decision this week to lay off 14,000 employees in a livestream at 2 p.m. ET. AI’s role in the layoffs will be a key topic.

Got a question that you want the panel to answer? Send it to moderator Dan DeFrancesco.

Amazon said on Tuesday that it would cut 14,000 corporate jobs in one of the biggest rounds of layoffs in the company’s history.

It raised a big question for Wall Street: Is the company cutting jobs because growth is stalling, or is the retail giant’s big bet on AI making it more efficient? Business Insider’s Alistair Barr wrote in Thursday’s Tech Memo newsletter that Amazon’s latest quarterly earnings report could answer that all-important question.

Revenue growth for Amazon Web Services, the company’s crucial cloud business, is the number to watch when Amazon reports this afternoon, Barr wrote.

For the third quarter, Wall Street expects AWS revenue to increase 18% year over year to $32.4 billion, according to Bloomberg.

UBS analysts are feeling optimistic heading into the report, although they anticipate some “noise” around operating income due to the company’s recent $2.5 billion settlement with the FTC.

The bank recently raised its price target for Amazon stock from $271 to $279, maintaining its Buy rating. While analysts said that they are waiting to see investment proof points from AWS, they still see the area as a likely growth driver for Amazon, as they expect multiple headwinds to wane in the near future.

“Overall, we continue to see the potential for upside across Amazon’s business segments, including e-commerce, cloud, advertising, and Kuiper / low earth orbit satellites,” analysts wrote in a recent earnings preview.

Investors will want to hear more about AWS’s latest AI strategy, including what it’s doing to attract new customers.

Early-stage startups are skipping traditional cloud spending and heading straight to model-training tools and niche providers. These companies are Amazon’s “blind spot,” according to an internal document seen by Business Insider. Amazon has traditionally relied on venture capital firms to find startups that could be new clients.

AWS also hired a new vice president of security services and observability this month, a sign that the unit is trying to improve security around its AI products.

JPMorgan analysts said that while they believe Amazon has done a good job executing on retail sales and margin expansion, they’re worried about its positioning in the booming generative AI space.

“There is concern around AMZN’s GenAI positioning/strategy, relative gap to Azure/Google Cloud growth, & trajectory of 2H AWS growth pick-up,” they said. “There is also concern around the impact of tariffs & changes to the de minimis exemption on demand & OI margins.”

However, the analysts add that AWS growth acceleration will likely continue, and said that they expect AI supply chain gaps to ease, which they see as bullish for Amazon.

JPMorgan maintains an overweight rating and a $265 price target for Amazon stock.

Amazon ranks last among the Magnificent Seven tech companies — and the broader S&P 500 — when it comes to stock performance over the last five years, Business Insider’s Joe Ciolli wrote in Thursday’s First Trade newsletter.

Amazon’s stock has returned 43% over that period, behind Meta’s 168%, Alphabet’s 253%, and Nvidia’s mammoth 1,490%.

On Wall Street, some interpret Amazon’s position on that chart as a sign that its AI strategy is struggling to compete with rivals.

BofA analysts are upbeat heading into the report, even as doubts swirl around Amazon’s AI strategy.

“Given healthy retail sales, strength in Online advertising, and July AWS layoffs, we see potential for operating income upside and are 4% above Street for GAAP operating profit at $20.4bn vs $19.7bn,” the analysts wrote.

“We believe Street expectations are for around 1-2% beat on US retail, AWS growth at 18-18.5% based on 3P data, and op. profit slightly above the high end of Amazon’s 3Q guidance range.”

The bank maintains a Buy rating on Amazon stock and a $272 price target, implying 21% upside from Wednesday’s price.

Third Quarter

• Net sales estimate $177.82 billion
• Online stores net sales estimate $66.93 billion
• Physical Stores net sales estimate $5.56 billion
• Third-Party Seller Services net sales estimate $42.05 billion
• Subscription Services net sales estimate $12.49 billion
• Amazon Web Services net sales estimate $32.39 billion
• North America net sales estimate $104.96 billion
• International net sales estimate $40.77 billion
• Third-party seller services net sales excluding F/X estimate
  +10.8%
• Subscription services net sales excluding F/X estimate +10.7%
• Amazon Web Services net sales excluding F/X estimate +17.9%
• EPS estimate $1.58
• Operating income estimate $19.72 billion
• Operating margin estimate 11.1%
• North America operating margin estimate +6.98%
• International operating margin estimate 4.02%
• Fulfillment expense estimate $27.49 billion
• Seller unit mix estimate 60.7%

Fourth Quarter

• Net sales estimate $208.45 billion
• Operating income estimate $23.78 billion
• Capital expenditure estimate $32.33 billion

Year

• Capital expenditure estimate $118.76 billion

Source: Bloomberg