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Kim Jong Un’s daughter may be training to one day succeed him. See the extended Kim family in photos.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his daughter Kim Ju Ae visit the newly built Kalma coastal tourist area in Wonsan, North Korea, December 29, 2024, in this photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his daughter Kim Ju Ae visit the newly built Kalma coastal tourist area in Wonsan, North Korea, December 29, 2024, in this photo released by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency.
  • Kim Jong Un is the third member of the Kim family to serve as leader of North Korea.
  • His grandfather Kim Il Sung was the first, and he started an unusual dynastic succession.
  • Photos show the family’s rule, and the potential fourth member of the dynasty, Kim Ju Ae.

Last week, North Korean state media released photos of Kim Jong Un testing firearms at a munitions factory with his daughter, Kim Ju Ae. The new photo-op came amid growing speculation that Ju Ae will be designated as Kim Jong Un’s successor.

The supreme leader’s daughter has only entered the public eye within the last five years. Maintaining North Korea’s most powerful family dynasty has required secrecy and mythologizing for decades.

Kim Jong Un became the leader of North Korea in 2011. As a third-generation ruler, he followed in the footsteps of his father and grandfather, who first came to power at the country’s founding.

“Having this kind of dynastic succession in a so-called communist state is unheard of,” Jung H. Pak, author of “Becoming Kim Jong Un,” told Business Insider. “They’re very focused on making sure that that bloodline is the one that leads the position of power,” she added.

While it can still be difficult to verify basic information about some members, the country is more open than it once was.

“There’s way less secrecy than there used to be about the leader of North Korea’s family,” Michael Madden, the founder of NK Leadership Watch, told Business Insider.

For example, Kim Jong Un’s children are more in the public eye than he was as a child, particularly second-born Kim Ju Ae, who has attended many official events alongside him.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) told lawmakers in February 2026 that it believes Kim Ju Ae has been designated as his successor.

She’s “shown her presence at various events” and “signs have been detected of her voicing her opinion on certain state policies,” lawmaker Lee Seong-kwen said, the BBC reported.

Here’s the Kim family history in pictures.

Kim Jong Un’s grandfather Kim Il Sung was North Korea’s first leader.
Kim Il Sung wears a gray suit and glasses surrounded by men in suits and military dress
Kim Il Sung in 1984.

In 1948, Kim Il Sung came to power and served as the country’s ruler until his death in 1994.

Japan’s colonization of Korea deeply affected Kim Il Sung.
Kim Il Sung sits at a desk wearing a suit
Kim Il Sung circa 1945.

Japan colonized the Korean peninsula between 1910 and 1945. Kim Il Sung was born in 1912, and his father was later jailed for his activism for independence. Visiting his beaten and bruised father in prison sparked an anti-Japanese zeal in Kim Il Sung, according to his memoir, quoted in “Becoming King Jung Un.”

Both of his parents died young, his father at 31 and his mother at 40.

Starting in the 1930s, Kim Il Sung became a guerrilla fighter.
Kim Jong Suk and Kim Il Sung smile in military uniforms
Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Suk in an undated photo.

In 1931, Japan invaded Manchuria, a region of China. Kim Il Sung led Chinese and Korean guerilla fighters in killing Japanese police and soldiers. He and his group then made their way to the Soviet Union in 1940 as pressure from the Japanese troops increased.

There, he received military training and became captain of a Red Army brigade.

Kim Jong Suk, Kim Jong Un’s grandmother, was a fellow guerrilla fighter.
Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Suk in military uniforms
Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Suk in an undated image.

Kim Jong Suk was in her late teens when she met up with Kim Il Sung in Manchuria in 1935. First helping in the kitchens, she became a fighter, and Kim Il Sung credited her with saving his life in his memoir. The two married in the early 1940s.

Much about their lives together at this point is unknown. “The records are sort of foggy,” Madden said.

In 1941, she gave birth to her first child, Kim Jong Il.
Young Kim Jong Il wears a military cap and salutes sitting in Kim Il Sung's lap and holding Kim Jong Suk's hand
Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Suk, and Kim Jong Il in an undated photo.

The couple was still in the Soviet Union at the time. Later, officials would alter Kim Jong Il’s birth to a year later, to match more closely with his father’s, 1912.

After years away from Korea, Kim Il Sung returned and rose to power.
Kim Il Sung waves while wearing a suit at a rally
Kim Il Sung in 1947.

The Soviet Union and the US divided the Korean peninsula in two in 1945. Despite fierce competition for the role, Kim Il Sung became the leader of the northern portion with the help of the Soviet Union.

Three years later, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea was established.

In 1949, Kim Jong Suk died.
Kim Jong Il wears a sailor suit and stands in front of his mother while his father Kim Il Sung sits in a chair outdoors
Kim Jong Suk and Kim Il Sung with their son Kim Jong Il.

The cause was an ectopic pregnancy, according to Kim Il Sung’s memoir.

She was seen as the mother of the country.
Kim Jong Suk smiles slightly in a headshot
Kim Jong Suk, Kim Jong Il’s mother, in an undated photo.

Kim Il Sung’s memoir contributed to some of the myth-making around Kim Jong Suk. Not only did she save his life, she sacrificed her hair to use as insulation for his boots.

It was important that she also be seen as nurturing, Pak said: “She supported her husband, the revolutionary.”

Kim Il Sung wanted to reunify Korea.
Kim Il Sung wears a gray military uniform and green hat in front of soldiers
Kim Il Sung with soldiers in 1950.

In 1950, North Korea invaded its neighbor, quickly capturing Seoul. The war lasted three years, during which the US heavily bombed the northern part of the peninsula. It ended with an armistice but no peace treaty.

Though the peninsula remained split, Kim Il Sung declared it a victory for North Korea.

Following his first wife’s death, Kim Il Sung remarried.
Kim Il Sung sits on a white park bench with his teenage children Kim Jong Il and Kim Kyong Hui
Kim Jong Il, Kim Il Sung, and Kim Kyong Hui in 1963.

Two of Kim Il Sung’s children, Kim Jong Il and Kyong Hui, moved to China during the Korean War, away from the fighting. A third child, Kim Man Il, drowned in 1947.

During the war, Kim Il Sung married Kim Song Ae, whom he began an affair with during his first marriage. The couple eventually had at least two sons.

“It’s got to be devastating trauma” for the siblings to return after the war ends to find a new family, Madden said.

Throughout his rule, Kim Il Sung’s persona became larger than life.
Kim Jong Il points standing next to his father who wears a coat and winter hat among others in uniforms and suits
Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il in an undated photo.

As Kim Il Sung continued his rule in the 1950s, he pushed his idea of juche, an ideology of Korean socialism that explained away difficult living conditions as necessary for creating a great nation.

He became part paternal authority figure, part Santa Claus, with the power to both punish and reward.

“After all, without Kim Il Sung, they as a nation and as a people would not exist, which schoolchildren learned in their textbooks and through lectures about their ‘father’s’ heroic deeds and adventures,” according to “Becoming Kim Jong Un.”

After over 45 years of rule, Kim Il Sung died in 1994.
Kim Jong Il and several others in suits or military uniforms stand in a line bowing their heads on a red carpet
Kim Jong Il at Kim Il Sung’s funeral in 1994.

Given his mythological status, it was unclear who would rule the country next.

It wasn’t a given that Kim Jong Il would succeed his father.
Kim Jong Il in a sunglasses and a suit next to Kim Il Sung in a gray cap, glasses, and tan coat
Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung circa 1965.

Initially, Kim Il Sung’s younger brother, Kim Yong Ju, seemed a potential candidate for succession in the late 1960s. His children from his second marriage may have also had a claim to the position.

By the late 1970s, though, Kim Il Sung had chosen his son Kim Jong Il as the country’s next leader. While Kim Jong Il lacked his father’s military background and force of personality, he had already secured leadership positions by that time.

“Kim Jong Il’s very ambitious,” Madden said. “He’s got axes to grind.” That included conflict with his stepmother and half-siblings. He used his clout to have his half-brother Pyong Il sent to a distant post.

Myths about Kim Jong Il made him seem like a genius born to succeed his father.
A young Kim Jong Il wearing a military cap
An ID photo of a young Kim Jong Il.

With his storied history as a guerrilla fighter and decades to build up his deified image, Kim Il Sung was a tough act to follow. “Kim Jong Il did not have those credentials, and they had to make things up for him,” Pak said.

According to legend, a shining star appeared in the sky on the day Kim Jong Il was born. He could walk and talk by the time he was 2 months old. As a kindergartener, he understood military tactics.

Before succeeding his father, Kim Jong Il took an interest in movie-making.
Kim Jong Il, wearing sunglasses and all black, and Kim Il Sung, in a military uniform and holding a red and white stick, look at a map
Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung in 1975.

One of Jong Il’s earliest posts was cultural arts director of the Propaganda and Agitation Department. A fan of James Bond and Elizabeth Taylor, he parlayed his interest in filmmaking into a way to feed the mystique around his father and his legacy.

He was also known as a partier and womanizer, according to “Becoming Kim Jong Un.”

Kim Jong Il inherited a country rife with problems.
Kim Jong Il wearing glasses and a gray coat clapping
Kim Jong Il in 1984.

North Korea spent years isolated from other countries, with a declining economy and a cowed population. “Their tools were coercion, violence, repression, and propaganda to create a culture of fear,” Pak wrote of the Kim family.

By 1994, the Soviet Union had recently collapsed, so Kim Jong Il had also lost his father’s biggest ally. He saw nuclear weapons as the key to holding onto power. In 2006, the country announced its first nuclear test.

Kim Jong Il had multiple wives.
Kim Jong Il in a green collard suit in front of several men in suits
Kim Jong Il in 1992.

While Jong Il didn’t seem to mind the spotlight, he kept his private life under wraps. His wives and domestic partners were hidden in lavish homes around Pyongyang.

He had children with Song Hye Rim, Kim Young Sook, and Ko Young Hui.

“Having multiple wives and children would have undermined Kim Jong Il’s own political leadership succession in North Korea,” Madden said.

Kim Jong Nam was Kim Jong Il’s eldest son.
Kim Jong Nam as a boy dressed in military uniform next to his grandmother in front of a decorated Christmas tree
Kim Jong Nam with his maternal grandmother in 1975.

His mother, Song Hae Rim, was a North Korean actor who divorced a novelist before having a child with Kim Jong Il in 1971.

Kim Jong Il didn’t want to bring attention to his son Jong Nam.
Kim Jong Il sits on a couch with his son Kim Jong Nam with three other family members standing behind them
Kim Jong Il with his son Jong Nam and sister-in-law Song Hye Rang and her children in 1981.

Jong Il was worried his father would disapprove of Song Hae Rim, who was born in South Korea, and his son. He kept them isolated but spoiled Jong Nam with foreign comics and TV shows, which were severely restricted to other North Korean residents.

In 1978, Jong Nam started going to school in Moscow and then Geneva. He spent a decade getting an education outside of North Korea.

Another wife, Ko Yong Hui, gave birth to three of Kim Jong Il’s children, including Kim Jong Un.
A reported childhood photo of Kim Jong Un with writing on it
A reported childhood photo of Kim Jong Un.

Ko Yong Hui was an actress who was born in Japan in 1952. When she was a child, her family moved to Pyongyang as part of the country’s program to bring back Koreans who lived and worked in Japan.

“Her connection to Japan is not something that’s acknowledged” by the leadership, Pak said. “The Korean-Japanese history goes back to the colonial period, and it’s a painful period for Korea.”

In the 1970s, Ko Yong Hui was a dancer with the Mansudae Art Troupe when she met Kim Jong Il. They had their first child together in 1981, a son named Kim Jong Chol.

Soon after, his brother, Kim Jong Un, was born. (The exact year of his birth isn’t clear.) Sister Kim Yo Jong followed in 1987.

Kim Jong Un’s older brother, Jong Chol, grew up interested in music.
Reportedly Kim Jong Chol in a black t-shirt in a crowd
Reportedly an image of Kim Jong Chol at an Eric Clapton concert in 2011.

In 2011, Kim Jong Chol was reportedly seen in Singapore at an Eric Clapton concert. Madden said he’s more artistic and sensitive than Kim Jong Un. “He’s younger than his brother, but his personality is so headstrong and charismatic,” he said of Jong Un.

The siblings went to school in Switzerland and seemed to grow close during their time away from North Korea.

Kim Jong Un and his brother stayed with their aunt while attending school in Switzerland.
Ko Yong Suk wearing white pants and a cream top and Ri Gang in black and white hat in a park
Kim Jong Un’s aunt Ko Yong Suk and her husband, Ri Gang, in 2016.

Ko Yong Suk, Kong Young Hui’s sister, took care of Kim Jong Un during his time in Switzerland.

“We lived in a normal house and acted like a normal family,” she told The Washington Post in 2016. During school holidays, they would go to the French Riviera or the Alps. Back home in North Korea, they stayed at their family’s luxury homes or traveled to a private resort on the country’s eastern coast.

In 1998, Ko Yong Suk and her husband defected to the US.

When Kim Jong Il died in 2011, Kim Jong Un filled the role of North Korea’s leader.
Kim Jong Un salutes as he and his uncle Jang Song Thaek (L) accompany the hearse carrying the coffin of late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il during his funeral procession in Pyongyang in this photo taken by Kyodo December 28, 2011. North Korea's military staged a huge funeral procession on Wednesday in the snowy streets of the capital Pyongyang for its deceased "dear leader," Kim Jong-il, readying a transition to his son, Kim Jong-un. An unidentified army official salutes on the right. Mandatory Credit REUTERS/Kyodo
Kim Jong Un and his uncle Jang Song Thaek during Kim Jong Il’s funeral procession in 2011.

Kim Jong Nam and Kim Jong Chol were both older than Kim Jong Un, leading some analysts to speculate they were next in line for succession.

In some ways, Jong Nam lived a lifestyle similar to his father’s, with a rowdy social life. However, Kim Jong Il may have worried that his son was too Westernized. In 2001, Jong Nam reportedly used a fake passport to try and go to Tokyo Disneyland.

“The first son had been outside North Korea for a long time, and so you can imagine that he would not have the networks or the connections” necessary to run the country, Pak said.

It’s not clear if Jong Chol was passed over or took himself out of the running to be leader. “You need to have some strength and personality if you want to take that title,” Madden said. “And Jong Chol didn’t have that.”

In contrast, Kim Jong Un seemed like his father in appearance and demeanor, Madden said.

Kim Jong Un’s aunt Kim Kyong Hui was his father’s close ally.
Kim Jong Un salutes as a guard marches past him his aunt Kim Kyong Hui and Pak Pong Ju in front of a crowd
Kim Kyong Hui with her nephew Kim Jong Un in 2013.

“She was a very prominent North Korean elite,” Madden said. She had several roles in the important Workers’ Party of Korea and became a general in the Korean People’s Army.

Her husband was executed in 2013.
Jang Song Thaek in a military uniform with Kim Jong Un in a black coat in front of large red flowers
Kim Jong Un with his uncle Jang Song Thaek in 2012.

Though he was once seen as having a powerful role in the government and possibly mentoring Kim Jong Un, Jang Song Thaek was accused of corruption in 2013, according to The BBC.

A military tribunal ruled that Kim Jong Un’s uncle had attempted to overthrow the state, and he was executed by an antiaircraft gun soon after.

A few years later, Kim Jong Un’s half-brother Jong Nam was killed in Malaysia.
Kim Jong nam
In this photo taken Friday, June 4, 2010, Kim Jong Nam, the eldest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, waves after his first-ever interview with South Korean media in Macau.

In 2017, two women smeared a nerve agent, VX, on Jong Nam’s face at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport. Jong Nam quickly died from exposure to the lethal substance. The woman said they thought it was part of a prank and were later released.

In 2018, the US State Department accused North Korea of being behind the attack. North Korea has denied any involvement.

What role the North Korean leader potentially had in his brother’s death is unclear.

“There are definitely people in KJU’s ear who would be stoking tension between his brother,” Madden said.

Jong Nam’s son released a video shortly after his father’s death.
Kim Han Sol smiles with a backpack over one shoulder and small houses and cars behind him on a street
A reported photo of Kim Han Sol in 2011.

Kim Han Sol spent most of his childhood in Macau, China.

He periodically gave interviews. In 2012, the teenager said, “I’ve always dreamed that one day I would go back and make things better, and make things easier for the people back there.”

In the 2017 video, Han Sol said he was with his mother and sister. The video was edited but ended with Jung Nam’s son saying, “We hope this gets better soon.”

Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un’s sister, is a high-ranking member of the ruling elite.
Kim Yo Jong smiles wearing a navy jacket over a white shirt
Kim Yo Jong, sister of Kim Jong Un, in 2023.

“Kim Yo Jong has unfettered access to her brother,” Madden said.

Her role has expanded in recent years beyond promoting Kim Jong Un’s image to include acting as a political advisor and becoming involved with the military.

“She’s kind of an attack dog,” Pak said. “She says nasty things about the South Korean president and South Korea and about the US.”

Kim Yo Jong appears to have two young children, who may one day play a role in a future leader’s cabinet.

“I would anticipate the sister’s children being supporters,” Pak said. “But their place in the inner circle is completely dependent on how much they show their loyalty to the leader,” she added.

Reportedly a former cheerleader and performer, Ri Sol Ju married Kim Jong Un in 2009.
Ri Sol Ju sits in a chair wearing a pink suit in front of a yellow and white background
Ri Sol Ju, wife of North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un, in 2018.

Ri Sol Ju was born in 1989. She’s played a bit of a first-lady role, attending summits and delegations alongside her husband.

“He can present her as a vision of what North Korean motherhood or womanhood should be,” Pak said. “She’s supportive. She’s pretty. She’s dressed in a very modern way and in a non-threatening way.”

More recently, she’s been less in the public eye. Reports state that she has three children with Kim Jong Un. They were born in 2010, 2013 and 2017, according to reports.

It’s increasingly believed that Kim Jong Un has found his successor in daughter Ju Ae, who is thought to be around 13 years old.
Kim Ju Ae poses for a photo next to her father and mother.
Kim Ju Ae poses for a photo next to her father and mother.

When basketball player Dennis Rodman visited Pyongyang in 2013, he met Ju Ae, and subsequently revealed her name in an interview with The Guardian.

Pak said the perception of a revolutionary aura is important in a potential successor.

“If we’re looking at succession, you would want to craft that narrative of somebody who is devoted and committed to advancing and possessing a nuclear weapon program, that has the luster of revolution, that the revolutionary blood is coursing through her veins,” Pak said.

She made her first public appearance at a missile test in 2022.
Kim Jong Un and Kim Ju Ae walking away from an ICBM.
Kim Ju Ae’s first public appearance was at a missile test in November 2022.

Though her existence was known prior to 2022, the year marked Ju Ae’s first appearance documented by North Korean state media at an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile test.

Little to no information is known about Ju Ae’s two siblings, or why she’s earned the limelight over them. CNN reported that Kim Jong Un’s first child is a boy, although he has never been seen publicly.

There’s been no official word that she will succeed her father.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his daughter Kim Ju Ae visit the Gangdong Greenhouse in North Korea, in this picture released on March 16, 2024, by the Korean Central News Agency.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his daughter Kim Ju Ae visit the Gangdong Greenhouse in North Korea, in this picture released on March 16, 2024, by the Korean Central News Agency.

Still, she has become increasingly visible within the country. In images released in March 2024 by the Korean Central News Agency — and not independently verified — Ju Ae and her father were seen visiting North Korea’s Kangdong Greenhouse, an extensive agricultural facility in Pyongyang.

In other photos released by the agency in December, she was seen visiting a new tourist area in the southeastern city of Wonsan with her father. Other photographs purportedly show them attending military drills and the launch of a warship in April.

Kim Ju Ae visited a newly finished tourist zone with her father in June 2025.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his daughter Kim Ju Ae visit a water park area during a ceremony to celebrate the completion of the Wonsan Kalma Coastal Tourist Zone, in Wonsan, North Korea, June 24, 2025.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his daughter Kim Ju Ae visit a water park area during a ceremony to celebrate the completion of the Wonsan Kalma Coastal Tourist Zone, in Wonsan, North Korea, June 24, 2025.

In images released by the KNC, the father and daughter visited amenities in the Wonsan Kalma Coastal Tourist Zone last June.

They were joined by Kim Jong Un’s wife, Ri Sol Ju, who until then had not been seen in state media photos since January 2024, Newsweek reported.

She attended a trip abroad to China with her father last year.
Kim Jong Un shakes hands with Chinese president Xi Jinping. Kim Ju Ae joined her father on the international trip.
Kim Jong Un shakes hands with Chinese president Xi Jinping. Kim Ju Ae joined her father on the international trip.

In September 2025, China held a summit for world leaders that marked the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Kim Jong Un attended the event and was notably accompanied by his daughter.

The summit was Ju Ae’s first known trip outside of North Korea.

South Korea’s intelligence agency assessed Ju Ae has been designated the next leader.
Kim Jong Un and Kim Ju Ae walking amongst a large crowd with buildings in the background.
Kim Jong Un and Kim Ju Ae attend a ceremony to commemorate new housing in February 2026.

In February, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service told legislators that they believed Kim Ju Ae is at a “successor-designate stage,” the AP reported. This is a new development from the agency’s previous characterization of “successor training.”

Though Kim Jong Un is only in his early 40s, his health has been under scrutiny.
Kim Jong Un looks at soft drinks at a food factory with his daughter, Ju Ae.
Kim Jong Un and Ju Ae tour a new food factory in Kangdong County, Pyongyang, in December 2025.

The supreme leader’s health has been the subject of speculation on multiple occasions, most notably during lengthy disappearances in 2014 and 2020. This makes the question of his successor all the more pressing.

Kim Jong Un is known to be a heavy smoker, and both his father and grandfather suffered from heart problems. In recent years, the supreme leader has had notable sudden weight loss, the BBC reported.

Ju Ae’s public appearances have grown more frequent.
Kim Jong Un fires a rifle as his daughter, Kim Ju Ae, watches with binoculars.
Kim Jong Un fires a rifle as his daughter, Kim Ju Ae, watches with binoculars.

Ju Ae has been increasingly seen by her father’s side at all kinds of events, like last month’s testing of sniper rifles after Kim Jong Un presided over North Korea’s ruling party congress.

Newly released photos show Ju Ae firing a pistol.
Kim Ju Ae fires a pistol.
North Korean state media released photos of Kim Ju Ae firing a a pistol in March 2026.

This week, Ju Ae accompanied her father to a munitions factory, where she was seen firing a pistol.

Whatever Ju Ae’s status, it appears that the Kim dynasty will continue into the next generation.
Kim Jong Un and Kim Ju Ae walk through a crowd, both weaing leather jackets
Kim Jong Un and his daughter Kim Ju Ae in 2024.

“She’s definitely had protocol lessons,” Madden said, from comportment to how to shake hands with officials. “I’d say her mom and her aunt Kim Yo Jong would definitely be involved in that stuff.”

Whether or not it’s Ju Ae who inherits the title, her presence is meant to cement the notion that there will be a fourth-generation leader from the Kim family, Madden said.

Read the original article on Business Insider

I thought moving abroad was exactly what I needed. I ended up finding something even better in a small US city.

The writer, her husband, and their dog standing in front of a car and a Christmas tree.
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  • My husband and I thought Sweden would bring us our dream life, but logistics made it hard to stay.
  • We ended up settling down in a small city in Maine, and surprisingly, we love it even more here.
  • The most special part of our new home is the tight-knit, extremely supportive community.

We spent New Year’s Eve wearing paper crowns at a cozy New England restaurant that felt like a living room. The owner stopped by our corner booth while he worked the room; our friends, who run their own bakery, slipped away to say hi to some regulars.

My husband leaned over and said, “I love this.”

The year before, we had been wall-to-wall at a roller-rink club in Brooklyn. Although we had a good time, sitting in that small-town restaurant — watching fireworks over the river — felt like exactly where we were meant to be.

There was no line, cover fee, or wild countdown. The night that often disappoints simply didn’t.

This wasn’t where we thought we’d be on the last night of 2025. In June, we’d moved from New York to Sweden, but just four months later, we found ourselves leaving for Maine.

We thought Sweden would be our new home, but circumstances made it temporary

Moving to Sweden in June, I was following a simple idea: When things feel scary in America, the best course of action is to leave.

For a while, it worked. Life felt gentler.

We fell into a mellow rhythm, going to the beach, visiting the many well-maintained conservation areas — including some that go directly through cow pastures — and eating affordable, healthy food from the grocery store.

Although Sweden delivered in real ways, staying required logistical planning and more time than we had. Leaving didn’t feel like failure, but choosing something more permanent.

Back in the US, we weren’t looking for another major metropolitan area, but a real community. That search led us to a small Maine city just south of Portland, where some of our friends were already living.

With a population of under 23,000, it sounded like a great fit. Friends helped us secure an apartment before we even arrived.

The community here immediately felt unlike anywhere else

A street with storefronts in Biddeford, Maine.
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We had a rich community in New York, but our friends were more spread out around the city. As soon as we got to Maine, though, we realized we could walk almost anywhere: from our apartment to a friend’s place, the pharmacy, a grocery store, and the river.

As a result, our city really feels like home. Now, our friends’ bakery isn’t just a place to get delicious treats and coffee; it’s where we run into — or make — friends in line, and chat about how their winter is going.

We’ve also seen the way Mainers support each other firsthand. When our moms came to visit, we took them for a coastal drive in our brand-new Volvo and slid straight into a ditch.

We were inches from doing damage and bracing for a tow when a woman and her kids came outside and jumped in to help push us back onto the road.

Within minutes, we were free. They waved while we drove off as if it were the most normal thing in the world.

Our community shows up for people in larger-scale ways, too. When a major fire hit the Old Port this winter, destroying boats and fishing equipment, the owner of a local seafood restaurant started selling T-shirts, with proceeds going to the fishermen affected.

More recently, amid Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)’s enhanced presence in Maine, residents responded immediately. Businesses put up “No ICE” posters, a hotline was established to provide help and resources, and crowds gathered downtown to protest the occupation.

It reaffirmed what I already knew about Maine: When people here think their neighbors are at risk, they take action.

Maine is exactly what we needed

The writer and her husband wearing matching hats on a Maine beach.
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One night, before grabbing cocktails, a group of our friends went to a live storytelling event in a small church.

I was surrounded by new and familiar faces: A former theater kid in his 30s told a story about the state spelling bee. An 80-year-old talked about soapbox racing in Camden.

My own creative work is taking shape here, too. I’m querying a novel, having found a steadier practice and supportive writing scene.

I’m glad I had the opportunity to live abroad, but I’m even happier that I landed in a small US city where people live year-round and expect to see each other for decades.

Sitting in that booth on New Year’s Eve, I understood why people here claim this place, and why I’m excited to do the same.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Loose rules, big money: Why Clavicular and other streamers are flocking to Kick

Braden Peters, who goes by Clavicular, on The Adam Friedland Show
Braden Peters, who goes by Clavicular, makes big money on Kick even as mainstream brands stay away.
  • Looksmaxxer Clavicular and other controversial personalities have drawn attention to the livestreaming service Kick.
  • Clavicular says he’s made more than $100,000 in a month on Kick, known for light moderation and big payouts.
  • Kick says it believes in freedom with limits and has increased its moderation “tenfold.”

The livestreamer Clavicular — who was once filmed running into someone with his Cybertruck — is the kind of provocative creator most major brands won’t touch.

That hasn’t stopped him from making serious money.

The 20-year-old says he’s pulled in more than $100,000 a month on Kick, his primary streaming platform, where he’s known for “looksmaxxing,” or going to extreme measures to maximize attractiveness.

Clavicular, whose real name is Braden Peters, isn’t alone. Kick has become a haven for some creators who are fed up with — or have been banned from — other platforms, particularly Amazon-owned Twitch.

Kick’s payouts are a crucial revenue source for these creators, unlike the brand deals that serve as the backbone of the broader creator economy. A 2025 survey found that brands fund nearly three-quarters of creators’ revenue, making Kick a lifeline for those considered “unsafe” by mainstream brands.

Australia-based Kick, founded in 2022 by the owners of the crypto gambling site Stake.com, features lighter content moderation than some rivals and a generous pay structure: a 95/5 subscription revenue split, compared to rival Twitch’s default 50/50 split. Kick says it may permit some violence depending on the context, for example, while Twitch says it has a “zero-tolerance” policy.

Kick also makes direct payments to creators based on their viewership. The platform said it made $182 million in these payments between August 2023 and the end of February.

Its audience is growing fast, too: Kick nearly doubled its share of hours watched to 12.4%, or 4.5 billion hours in 2025, according to a Stream Hatchet report. That made it the third-largest live-streaming platform by share of hours watched, behind Twitch at 52% and YouTube Gaming at 24%.

Kick says it believes in freedom within limits. The platform, which is trying to smooth the way for ad deals, told Business Insider that it’s increased its human moderation team “tenfold” since 2022 and that it responds quickly to creators in its live support chat. (Kick briefly suspended Clavicular in December 2025, after the video in which he ran into someone. Police investigated the scene and didn’t file charges.)

Adin Ross and N3on, center, known for their inflammatory comments, found popularity on Kick.
Adin Ross and N3on, center, known for their inflammatory comments, found popularity on Kick.

Kick has also begun signing more brand-safe gamers and organizing events for creators, sponsoring a Formula 1 team last year.

“Kick has started to legitimize itself,” said Mustafa Aijaz, VP at online gaming organization SoaR Gaming, which has multiple players using the platform alongside Twitch.

The manosphere is thriving on Kick

Clavicular wasn’t always on Kick.

He started his rise to online fame by posting on Looksmax.org, a forum where people rate each other and ask for advice on improving their appearance before going out. He now runs a paid online academy that provides looksmaxxing advice and guides to picking up women, which he refers to as “targets” and “slayables,” Rolling Stone reported.

Clavicular, who has said he eschews politics, has gotten attention for associating with the likes of far-right influencer Nick Fuentes and self-described misogynist influencer Andrew Tate, and for being filmed partying to the Ye song “Heil Hitler.” Clavicular shrugged off the incident, calling it “just a song.”

Mariel Barnes, a University of Wisconsin-Madison professor, describes Clavicular as part of the manosphere, a loose collection of media outlets and influencers she characterizes as advocating anti-feminist ideology. Manosphere influencers have found fertile ground on Kick, where the top 10 streamers are usually men, typical of other livestreaming platforms.

Barnes said they often get their start through broadly palatable causes, like self-improvement or fathers’ rights, before turning to darker fare like overt misogyny.

Clavicular’s behavior and views have made him a wider symbol of the plight of young men. California Gov. Gavin Newsom talked about him in a late February interview and bemoaned that “these are the guys raising our kids.”

Clavicular reposted it, replying, “The brand is strong.”

From gaming and self-improvement to extreme politics

Some other boundary-pushing livestreamers on Kick started in gaming before shifting into politics and pop culture, widening their audience and impact. Many of the more popular streamers fall on the right end of the political spectrum; others are harder to pin down politically.

These streamers’ chats become the wellspring of communities that often attract impressionable kids, said Ryan Morrison, the CEO of esports-focused Evolved Talent Agency, who did Canadian streamer xQc’s deal with Kick.

Some of the discourse on Kick can be toxic and attracts “people who are lonely and helpless,” Morrison said.

Overall, Kick hosts more than 500,000 creators, who can stream and post clips. Scroll through the app, and you might find people playing casual games like Pokémon next to a video of someone playing slots.

You’ll also likely come across videos from Adin Ross, 25, who ranks as Kick’s second-most popular streamer, according to Stream Charts. He has said his deal with Kick pays him five figures per hour he streams. He rose to fame by streaming NBA 2K and GTA V before moving into long, unfiltered interviews with celebrities like LeBron James and Logan Paul.

In 2024, he gave then-candidate Donald Trump a Cybertruck and tried to grow his support among young men. Ross buddied up with Tate and has streamed with Fuentes.

Ross was banned by Twitch in 2023 for not deleting multiple racist and antisemitic comments in his chat. Ross has said he takes accountability for the behavior of his fans. He also apologized after a clip of him making what appeared to be a Nazi salute circulated on X.

LEEDS, ENGLAND - JANUARY 20: Harrison (HStikkytokky) Sullivan looks on during the MF & DAZN X Series at First Direct Arena on January 20, 2024 in Leeds, England. (Photo by George Wood/Getty Images)
Harrison (HStikkytokky) Sullivan has built a image around insulting women.

Another prominent Kick streamer is Harrison Sullivan, or HSTikkytokky, a 24-year-old British influencer who started with a focus on health and fitness and has since built his brand around flirting with and insulting women.

Sullivan, who has been suspended from Kick multiple times, including for using homophobic slurs and showing sexually explicit content, now has 242,000 followers on the platform, where he often streams about gambling and women.

His views are sometimes hard to follow. For example, in one video, he denied being homophobic and racist in response to an earlier video where he maintained he was homophobic as well as antisemitic. He recently gained wider exposure as a subject of the new Netflix doc, “Louis Theroux: Inside the Manosphere.”

Then there’s N3on, 21, whose real name is Rangesh Mutama. He started streaming as a teen gamer and has since shifted to real-life streaming marked by outlandish and inflammatory stunts — like faking his own death. He has nearly 500,000 followers on Kick, where he’s also faced at least one suspension.

He’s gotten some mainstream attention by hanging out with the ex-rapper Iggy Azalea, creating content with other rappers, and going on “The Breakfast Club,” where he was called out for people leaving racist comments in his chat. N3on responded that the chat wasn’t representative of his community, and he said he was evolving from a person who used to say whatever he wanted.

Kick isn’t alone in platforming controversial streamers who have been barred from other sites. Ross also streams on YouTube. Kicked off mainstream platforms, Fuentes streams to nearly 700,000 followers on Rumble.

Steven Bonnell, who goes by Destiny
Steven Bonnell, who goes by Destiny, built a following for his debate-heavy streams.

Streamers span the political spectrum

Kick is home to provocative streamers of many political and ideological persuasions.

Steven Bonnell, aka Destiny, is a political creator who built a following with his debate-focused streams. The 37-year-old advocates for some liberal policies, but isn’t easily pigeonholed politically. He said he was suspended from Twitch in 2018 after using homophobic and racist language, then permanently banned in 2022. He’s also streamed a generally friendly discussion with Fuentes. Today, Destiny streams to 133,000 followers on Kick.

There’s also prominent streamer xQc, whose real name is Félix Lengyel. XQc, 30, gained online celebrity as a pro Overwatch player before getting an up to $100 million payday from Kick in one of the platform’s biggest deals.

While not overtly political, he’s called people who voted for Trump a slur for the developmentally disabled. Early in his career, he made a widely criticized homophobic remark, for which he apologized. Years later, he expressed disapproval of homophobic remarks by fans in another online personality’s stream. Morrison, xQc’s manager, said he is “loud and crazy” but added that he has “not a sliver” in common with the alt-right.

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 21: Felix Lengyel, aka XQC, attends TwitchCon 2024 San Diego on September 21, 2024 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Robin L Marshall/Getty Images)
Félix Lengyel, aka xQc, is one of Kick’s highest-paid streamers.

Whatever the politics or nature of their controversies, a common thread among many top Kick streamers is behavior that pushes the boundaries of social acceptance.

“Kick is like the Wild West of streaming,” said Eric Harper, CEO of esports firm GG Talent Group. “Some of the biggest names on the platform have been ostracized from the rest of the gaming community because of hateful views, hateful actions. The TLDR is, there’s a huge brand risk, which is why a lot of streamers don’t stream there.”

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Meta could be winning the AI race, just not in the way you’d expect

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has gone all in on AI.
  • Meta might not yet have the best AI models, but it could be winning on another crucial front.
  • Meta is considering major layoffs across the company, Business Insider reported.
  • A top analyst suggested these cuts could signal that Meta’s AI transformation is underway.

Could more Meta layoffs mean the company still has bloat to trim — or could it signal its AI investments are actually starting to pay off?

A note from a top Wall Street analyst said on Monday that any head count cutting from Meta could actually be a sign that it’s successfully rebuilding itself as an “AI-forward” company.

That could be bad for its rivals.

While Meta’s deep investment in AI has so far not produced leading models like Google’s and OpenAI’s, Bernstein’s Mark Shmulik said Meta’s aggressive push to overhaul itself into a top-to-bottom AI company could put it ahead of competitors and trigger a “wave of panic” as competitors scramble to copy it.

Meta is pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into building out AI data centers and luring talent to shore up its AI research teams. Last week, Business Insider reported the company was weighing up layoffs, with some managers being asked to draw up cost-cutting plans.

Bernstein’s Shmulik said this could be a signal that Meta is winning on a crucial front in the AI wars. While companies can win with world-class frontier models, they can also beat the competition by deploying AI so deeply across the core business that their competitive moat “widens beyond dispute,” Shmulik wrote.

“Meta has already demonstrated the compelling returns they’re seeing from deploying AI to core workloads,” wrote Shmulik. “But if the company can now re-design their operations from the ground up to be AI-forward, their potential cost and performance advantage could be insurmountable.”

By one metric, Zuckerberg’s efficiency drive over the past three years has paid off. Revenue per employee has steadily increased over that time period, with the company overtaking Amazon last year, according to data shared in the Bernstein note this week. Pinterest was the only company with a higher ratio.

At the same time, Meta’s capex and R&D spend per employee have significantly outpaced rivals, according to the Bernstein report, which could point to a reason for the potential layoffs.

Investors appeared to react positively to Meta weighing up further cuts, with the company’s shares up about 2% early Monday.

AI-washing? Maybe not.

Like other Big Tech companies, Meta has moved quickly to chase AI.

It has also been aggressively driving AI adoption internally. The company said it would start grading employees on their “AI-driven impact” in performance reviews starting this year, and has tracked how some teams have been using the tools, Business Insider previously reported.

Companies including Atlassian and Block have cited AI as a reason for recent layoffs, raising the question of whether some leaders are “AI-washing” and using the technology to camouflage other reasons for cuts, such as financial problems or overhiring during the COVID pandemic.

Bernstein’s Shmulik said that while AI-washing was possible in Meta and other companies’ cases, he said that layoffs could now be seen as evidence that the company is seeing efficiency gains.

The company eliminated more than 20,000 jobs in late 2022 and early 2023 as Zuckerberg declared a “year of efficiency,” cutting non-technical roles, flattening management layers, and lifting what had been a sagging share price.

If Meta repeats a similar cycle for the AI era, it could set the mold for what a truly AI-first company could look like, Shmulik said.

“If one major player is able to redraw the blueprint for an AI-enabled organization, others will rush to replicate it… and we wonder if this could trigger a cascade of hurried pivots, half-formed strategies, and reactive restructuring across the ecosystem,” he wrote.

Have something to share? Contact this reporter via email at hlangley@businessinsider.com or Signal at 628-228-1836. Use a personal email address and a non-work device; here’s our guide to sharing information securely.

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Everyone in my life thought moving for a 7-month relationship was reckless. They were right, but it was worth it.

The writer, wearing a black dress, and her husband, wearing a festive holiday vest, standing in their kitchen.
captiontk
  • My friends and family thought I was making a mistake when I moved states for a new relationship.
  • At first, I felt homesick, but my partner supported me in a way that validated my decision.
  • Now, we’re married with kids, and I’m so glad I took a risk on love.

When I was 21, I fell in love for the first time.

Tim and I met online before it was cool. An avid fisherman, sports fanatic, and gifted salesman, he wasn’t my usual type — but he was charming, funny, awkward, and sweet. I fell for him, hook, line, and sinker.

There was only one problem. Tim lived in Minneapolis, and I lived in Chicago.

We made long-distance work for as long as we could. On the rare weekends I wasn’t waitressing, I traveled to Minnesota for ice fishing and bar hopping. When Tim’s schedule allowed, he visited me at my parents’ house for family dinners and nights out with friends.

Our time together was fun and exciting, but after seven months of constant travel, we knew we had some decisions to make.

When Tim and I decided to take the next step, I moved to Minnesota

The writer and her husband sitting in the booth at a bar.
captiontk

After a four-year collegiate stint in Michigan, I’d sworn to myself that I’d never leave Chicago again. Not only were my family and friends there, but it was comforting and familiar. It was home.

Tim understood my love for Chicago from the moment we met. He was early in his dream career as a salesman, and I hadn’t yet decided what I wanted to do professionally. Even so, he reassured me that I would never have to move — that, instead, he would find a way to relocate for me.

The more reassuring he was, though, the more I began seriously considering moving to Minnesota. Logistically, it just made sense.

My family and friends were just as charmed by Tim as I was, but they were skeptical, too. They cautioned me against moving, reminding me that Tim and I hadn’t known each other that long.

The more I thought about beginning a new chapter, though, the more right it felt. Whether or not Tim and I lasted, maybe an adventure was exactly what I needed to kick off the adult chapter of my life.

Despite their warnings, I began searching for a job in Minneapolis. When I found a new job and a new roommate in the same week, it felt like fate.

I struggled with homesickness at first, but Tim supported me

My life in Minnesota wasn’t what I had imagined. Living away from home was difficult, and I was miserably homesick for weeks. I was also adjusting to life in my first apartment, along with a new, very demanding job.

I was thrilled to be closer to Tim, but the struggles I was experiencing overshadowed much of my joy. Despite these difficulties, Tim remained patient, sure of our relationship, even when my confidence wavered.

On Halloween, my family’s favorite holiday, Tim dressed up as a giant piece of pizza to cheer me up. When the first snow fell that season, Tim was waiting in my new apartment with a Christmas tree in tow.

By the time Valentine’s Day rolled around, bringing with it chocolate-covered strawberries and three dozen white roses (my favorite), most of my homesickness had faded.

I realized that Tim was my future, wherever we lived

The writer and her husband standing in a park, looking into each other's eyes.
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After six months, I finally began to find my footing. My roommate and I developed a strong bond, and I began to branch out into new social circles.

I fell in love with Minnesota in the summertime. I even learned to fish! Turns out, Tim was an excellent teacher.

Tim was my constant, in good times and bad. As the months continued to pass, I began to realize that maybe, this wasn’t just the beginning of a new chapter — maybe it was the beginning of forever.

One evening, eight months after I first arrived in Minnesota, Tim invited me out for a casual dinner. I accepted, thinking nothing of it, not even questioning the fact that he wanted us to explore an antique store 15 minutes before our reservation.

I was sifting through a pile of old postcards when I realized that Tim was nowhere to be seen — until I rounded the corner and there he was, on bended knee, a tiny box in his outstretched hand.

We were married that December in Chicago. We spent another year in Minnesota after that, before returning to my hometown for good, putting down roots a few miles from my childhood home.

Thirteen years and six children later, I’m forever grateful that I ignored well-meaning warnings from my friends and family. I may have risked it all on love, but in the end, it was worth it.

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Who is favored to win an Oscar, according to Kalshi and Polymarket

An Oscar statuette
If bettors are correct, “One Battle After Another” will take home six Oscars, while “Sinners” is each set to win four.
  • One of the tightest Oscar races in recent memories are on Sunday.
  • Bettors are already wagering tens of millions on who will win in each of the 24 categories.
  • Here’s who’s most likely to win, according to the odds on Kalshi and Polymarket.

At the Oscars on Sunday, it’s not just Hollywood careers that are on the line. It’s tens of millions of dollars.

Since the nominees were announced in January, traders on Polymarket and Kalshi have been wagering on which films, actors, directors, and more will win an Oscar in each of the Academy’s 24 categories.

Prediction markets have seen dramatic growth over the last year, drawing the attention of media companies, the ire of some state regulators, and the scrutiny of Washington lawmakers.

Polymarket partnered with the Golden Globes earlier this year, and bettors on the site correctly predicted the winner in 26 out of 28 categories.

The Oscars, hosted this year by Conan O’Brien, will air on Sunday on ABC and Hulu.

And if bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket have it right, “One Battle After Another” will take home six Oscars, while “Sinners” will win four awards, and “Frankenstein” will walk away with three.

Where the odds stand for each category

Leonardo DiCaprio holding a gone and a tracker
Leonardo DiCaprio in “One Battle After Another.”

Best Picture — “One Battle After Another”

Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” is the odds-on favorite to win best picture, standing at around 80% among Polymarket and 78% on Kalshi.

The next most likely winner is Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” which each platform gives a less than 20% chance.

Bettors have wagered more than $44 million on the Best Picture winner across the two platforms, the most of any category.

Best Director — Paul Thomas Anderson

The director of “One Battle After Another” is seen as the overwhelming favorite to win best director, with Kalshi and Polymarket pegging his chances of winning in the low 90s.

Best Actor — Michael B. Jordan

Michael B. Jordan, the lead actor on “Sinners,” has an almost 60% chance of winning, according to both Kalshi and Polymarket.

That’s a significant change from January, when Timothée Chalamet — the lead actor in “Marty Supreme” — was seen as the leading contender, with odds in the mid-70s at the time.

The change came after Jordan won “Outstanding Male Actor in a Leading Role” at the Actor Awards on March 1.

Chalamet’s chances now sit in the low-to-high 30s on both platforms.

Best Actress — Jessie Buckley

According to bettors, Buckley — the lead actress in “Hamnet” — is likely to win best actress, garnering about 97% on both prediction market platforms.

Best Cinematography — “One Battle After Another”

“One Battle After Another” is seen as the overwhelming favorite to win best cinematography, with bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket giving the movie roughly 76% chance of winning.

That’s a change from January, when both platforms had “Sinners” with a 66% chance of winning at one point.

Best Production Design — “Frankenstein”

At over 90%, bettors on both prediction market platforms give “Frankenstein” an overwhelming chance of winning the award for best production design.

Best Adapted Screenplay — “One Battle After Another”

In addition to best picture and best cinematography, “One Battle After Another” is seen as overwhelmingly likely to win best adapted screenplay.

The movie now has a 96% chance of winning on both platforms.

F1 movie
Damson Idris as Joshua Pearce and Brad Pitt as Sonny Hayes in Apple Original Films’ “F1 The Movie,” premiering December 12, 2025 on Apple TV.

Best Sound — “F1”

Apple’s sports drama film F1 is the overwhelming favorite to win best sound, according to bettors.

Both platforms give the movie a roughly 80% chance of winning.

Best Animated Short Film — “Butterfly”

Bettors are less certain who will win the award for best animated short film.

“Butterfly,” a 15-minute film by director Florence Miailhe, has a 61% chance on both platforms.

But not far behind is “The Girl Who Cried Pearls,” a 17-minute short film, which bettors give between a 21% and 22% chance of winning.

Best Live Action Short Film — “Two People Exchanging Saliva”

The French-language short film “Two People Exchanging Saliva” leads among bettors with about a 46% chance of winning on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Another major contender is “The Singers,” a musical short comedy film that has 29% chance on Kalshi and a 30% chance on Polymarket.

Additionally, “A Friend of Dorothy,” a British short comedy drama film, has a 22% chance on Kalshi and a 21% on Polymarket.

Best Film Editing — “One Battle After Another”

The film leads the odds for best film editing winner, with an 84% chance on both platforms.

A still of "Sinners" showing Michael B. Jordan in a bloody vest, holding a broken wooden stick and gun with other people with weapons in the background.
“Sinners” is leading in multiple categories, according to prediction markets.

Best Original Score — “Sinners”

“Sinners” is the overwhelming favorite to win best original score, with bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket giving the film a 94% chance of winning.

Best Original Song — “Golden”

“Golden,” the viral hit from the film “KPop Demon Hunters,” is the odds-on favorite to win best original song, with bettors on both platforms giving the song a 85% chance.

Best Supporting Actor — Sean Penn

Sean Penn, who plays Col. Steven J. Lockjaw in “One Battle After Another,” is the favorite to win best supporting actor, with an over 70% chance on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

That’s a dramatic change from January, when Stellan Skarsgård — who plays an estranged father in the Norwegian drama film “Sentimental Value” — had the highest odds, at roughly 64% chance on both platforms.

Best Supporting Actress — Amy Madigan

Amy Madigan, who portrays Aunt Gladys in the horror film “Weapons,” is now the favorite to win best supporting actress on both platforms, hovering around 55%.

That’s a change from January, when Teyana Taylor — who portrays Perfidia Beverly Hills in “One Battle After Another” — was the overwhelming favorite to win best supporting actress, sporting 75% on both platforms.

screaming bow and arrow on fire avatar fire and ash
James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” holds a commanding lead for the Best Visual Effects Oscar on prediction markets.

Best Visual Effects — “Avatar: Fire and Ash”

Bettors believe that James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” the third installment in the “Avatar” series, is almost certain to win the award for best visual effects.

The movie’s chances of winning stand at 94% on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Best Original Screenplay — “Sinners”

“Sinners” is the overwhelming favorite to win best original screenplay, with roughly 95% odds on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Best Documentary Short Film — “All the Empty Rooms”

Bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket give “All the Empty Rooms” a roughly 70% chance of winning the award for best documentary short film.

The movie follows a journalist and photographer as they memorialize the empty bedrooms of school shooting victims.

Best Documentary Feature Film — “The Perfect Neighbor”

“The Perfect Neighbor,” a documentary about Florida’s “Stand Your Ground” laws, is the odds-on favorite to win best documentary feature film, with bettors on both platforms giving the film a roughly 66% chance.

Best International Feature Film — “Sentimental Value”

“Sentimental Value” is the favorite to win best international feature film, with bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket giving the film 67%-68% odds of winning.

A still from "Frankenstein" showing Oscar Isaac holding an object with his right hand.
Oscar Isaac stars as Victor Frankenstein in Guillermo Del Toro’s “Frankenstein.”

Best Costume Design — “Frankenstein”

“Frankenstein” is the overwhelming favorite to win best custom design, sporting roughly 90% on both platforms.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling — “Frankenstein”

Similarly, “Frankenstein” is seen as a lock for best makeup and hairstyling, sporting probabilities in the low 90s on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Best Animated Feature Film — “KPop Demon Hunters”

“KPop Demon Hunters” is the prohibitive favorite to win best animated feature film, with a roughly 94% chance on both prediction markets.

Best Casting — “Sinners”

“Sinners” is seen as most likely to win best casting, with Kalshi and Polymarket bettors giving the film a 77%-78% chance of winning.

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