• US consumers are projected to spend a record $11.7 billion online this Black Friday.
• Expected top Black Friday sellers include toys, electronics like the iPhone 17, and skincare products.
• AI shopping assistants and big discounts are fueling record holiday e-commerce spending.

American shoppers are coming off a strong Thanksgiving spending period, with Black Friday expected to set a record.

Adobe’s initial Black Friday e-commerce data projects that consumers will spend a record $11.7 billion online, up 8.3% from 2024. Shoppers are expected to take advantage of deals early and outpace Cyber Monday spending, as they anticipate finding the best deals on Friday, according to Adobe.

Users are hunting for toys, electronics, and skincare as gifts, with Labubus and Lego sets expected to sell quickly. On the electronics front, demand for the iPhone 17 is strong, Adobe said, and the Oura ring is also a popular choice.

Although the PlayStation 5 remains a highly sought-after item in 2025, it’s expected to be dethroned by the Nintendo Switch 2 as the top gaming console this Black Friday. Self-care also appears to be a significant trend, with hair care tools, fragrances, and skincare sets on Adobe’s shortlist.

Black Friday follows a better-than-expected Thanksgiving day, which came in at $6.4 billion, a 5.3% bump year over year.

The record spending was driven by big discounts, impulse-led mobile shopping, and AI shopping assistants, according to Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights. On Thanksgiving, the number of consumers who visited US retail sites through an AI chat service increased by 725% compared to last year.

Many major retailers invested in their own generative AI chatbots or partnerships in time for holiday shopping. Target, for example, launched a holiday-themed AI shopping assistant that suggests gift ideas based on user prompts.

Overall, Adobe estimates that Cyber Week (the five-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday) will account for 17.2% of spending this season, totaling $43.7 billion.

As locals gossip beneath the low-beamed ceiling of a coffee shop, I ask Audrey Ann Masur to speak up.

“I’m always trying to speak more quietly, so I’m not getting that stereotype,” the 37-year-old from Indiana whispers across our table with a nervous smile, her decaf coffee steaming in the autumn chill.

We’re in the Cotswolds, an 800-square-mile pocket of English countryside dotted with towns and villages. Masur and her young family moved here from South Carolina five years ago, when her husband was reposted by the US military.

Her accent has prompted older locals to corner her at the grocery store and press her on her political views, Masur says. So, she figures it’s best to keep her voice down.

I hope Masur, who documents life in the Cotswolds on Instagram for her 13,700 followers, can help me understand why this area has become a hot spot for transatlantic elites in recent years. I want to know how locals are reacting as old British money and new international money meet and — as the American “invasion” headlines in the British press suggest — clash.

Masur is neither a billionaire nor a millionaire — “I drive a Honda Jazz,” she says — but she has met some of the wealthy American newcomers at influencer events and watched businesses change in the relatively short time she has been here.

“There are a lot more places that want to please people of a certain socioeconomic status,” Masur says.

Recent high-profile visitors to the area, which straddles six counties, include Taylor Swift, Eve Jobs, who married here in July, and JD Vance, whose security checkpoints put the sleepy village of Dean on lockdown in August. Others, like Masur, are calling it home. Ellen DeGeneres has lived here since 2024, and Beyoncé and Jay-Z are rumored to be looking for property.

This is part of a lucrative boom in Americans heading to the UK. In 2024, there were a record 5.6 million visits from the US, up half a million on the previous year. Those visitors spent a record £7.3 billion, or about $9.5 billion, in 2024 — £1.1 billion more than in 2023, according to data from VisitBritain.

They’re also spending more: In 2024, adjusted for inflation, Americans spent £68 more per trip to the UK than they did in 2023.

Figures provided to Business Insider by the UK government show that the number of US nationals applying for British citizenship also hit a record high in the second quarter of 2025, following the inauguration of President Donald Trump. Between April and June, 2,194 Americans applied — up 50% on the same period last year.

From the sheer number of what sound like American accents I hear during my trip in late October — although I meet some Canadian ladies hurt by my assumption — it feels as though most have headed straight to the Cotswolds.

Two real estate professionals told me they are seeing the spoils of this trend: more American tech founders, media moguls, and billionaires looking for historic properties in the region.

“Once there’s a critical mass of like-minded people in the area, it draws more and more people of that profile,” says Harry Gladwin, a Cotswolder and partner at The Buying Solution, which advises wealthy foreigners on finding homes here.

Armand Arton, the founder of Arton Capital, which helps ultra-high-net-worth clients secure second homes and citizenships, says US politics has motivated a lot of his clients to seek homes in this part of rural England. But owning heritage properties — castles and country estates that many British aristocrats can no longer afford to maintain — is also about status.

“New money wants old-money trophy assets,” Arton says.

The Battle of Little Tew

Nowhere is the tension between locals and new money, much of it American, clearer than in Little Tew. Many of the village’s 500 residents have spent years protesting against plans by the billionaire Soho House executive Ron Burkle to build a sprawling estate on a 90-acre plot of land on its outskirts.

In a letter of objection, one villager described the scale of the project, which would involve building a country house, a highway, a lake, and a swimming pool, as “grotesque.”

The matter was settled at a parish meeting in October, when 27 residents voted unanimously against the plans — that is, unless Burkle lodges an appeal or submits a revised application.

“We were concerned that this house would probably, if built, be underused,” says Anthony Cripps, 59, a recruitment consultant who lives in the village and chaired the meeting.

Burkle hasn’t addressed the plans in the press, and his office did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

The David and Goliath battle unfolding in Little Tew echoes others in the Cotswolds, albeit on a smaller scale.

A 2024 report by Cotswold District Council found that second homes in the area are putting pressure on an already tight housing supply. Council data provided to Business Insider shows that the number of second homes has gradually risen each year since April 2021, when it first collected data. By April 2025, there were 1,597 second homes in the district — up 3.5% on the previous year and about 6.5% over four years.

A 100% Council Tax Premium introduced in April essentially doubled the bill paid by owners of furnished second homes, with the revenue going toward affordable housing and local services in the Cotswolds. It’s one measure aimed at slowing the kind of rural gentrification that risks pricing out longtime, less affluent residents.

“It’s seen as the playground of the rich and famous, but if you strip away that veneer, you do have quite a lot of rural isolation going on and poverty,” says Paul Hodgkinson, a councillor whose constituency includes the tourist hot spot Bourton-on-the-Water.

The tension here isn’t only between Americans and locals, but more broadly about what happens when wealth of any origin starts pouring into a region.

“I don’t want to single out Americans,” Hodgkinson says.

“It’s not just about people from abroad buying second homes and holiday homes,” he adds. “It’s anyone.”

UK government data shows that in 2024, the Cotswolds was among the least affordable places to live in England and Wales, with the average house costing 13.8 times the typical yearly salary of a full-time employee in the area, at £440,000 on £31,795.

Hodgkinson worries that in addition to worsening the housing crunch, more second-homers could have a cultural impact by hollowing out village life — locals congregating at the pub and organizing village fetes risk being replaced by wealthy visitors dropping by for short, luxury breaks.

‘Americans are happy to spend more’

While some are uneasy about the changing Cotswolds, others see it as an opportunity.

In a snug four-table room up a narrow, creaking staircase at Stow-on-the-Wold’s New England Coffee House, Alison Tighe, the town’s mayor, tells me Americans are “bringing investment.”

She gestures toward a kind of trickle-down logic. “When you have more investment in this area, you’ve not just got jobs for local people, you’ve also got improved services,” Tighe says.

To Gladwin, the real estate agent and Cotswolds local, the influx of money has injected some dynamism into the area, which he says was once a “sleepy backwater” for retirees.

“Whether you want a vegan flat white, reformer classes, cryotherapy, or just a long walk with the dogs, you can do everything here,” he says.

That much is clear at Daylesford Organic — effectively the Erewhon of the Cotswolds — where I see a woman inspecting £39 collagen and açai supplements as her cavapoo sniffs at a shelf lined with £28 jars of artisan hazelnut spread. Women in activewear holding green juices head into the connecting Bamford spa, where sound healing classes are on offer, and £235 toning massages await.

It’s a far cry from the Cotswolds of old, with its muddy wellies and unpretentious tea rooms.

While the money transforming the Cotswolds isn’t exclusively American, the US influence on the area’s culture is on clear display during my trip.

Ten miles from Stow-on-the-Wold in Burford, Jack Forbes, the general manager of the Bull, a luxury hotel and group of restaurants with a distinctly Soho House feel, tells me businesses are “growing up.”

He says Americans, who now make up as much as half of his clientele, are raising the bar in the Cotswolds and bringing with it US tipping culture.

“There’s no doubt Americans are happy to spend more,” he says.

Lauren O’Brian, the co-owner of The Sweet Shop in Burford, says that in recent years, more Americans have been stocking up on traditional candy — sherbet lemons, rhubarb and custard sweets, and Turkish delight. She thinks they’re attracted by the quaint country life depicted in period dramas like “Downton Abbey.”

A few doors down, Cindy Kosmala, the owner of Hugo Lovage Patisserie, tells me that American clients, including celebrities, are keeping her business alive.

I hear a similar story at D’Ambrosi Fine Foods back in Stow-on-the-Wold, where a rustic table piled with high-end British deli items sits beneath a taxidermied pheasant. Outside, the window display features packets of Reese’s Pieces, Cracker Jack, and “All-American Pancake Mix” beneath a rolled-up American flag.

The ‘Hamptons of England’

I ask the owner, Jesse D’Ambrosi, a Massachusetts native who opened the luxury deli six years ago, what she thinks of the Cotswolds being dubbed the “Hamptons of England.” “I have said that,” she says with a smile, “because it is.”

The store’s eclectic stock reflects how the Cotswolds’ old-money sensibilities are increasingly being curated by and for newcomers with American twangs and expensive tastes.

Outside the coffee shop where we met, Masur and I prepare to say goodbye, and she gestures to Stow’s high street.

“At all of these places, all of a sudden, they’re serving more iced coffee, which I love — but this has to have something to do with more Americans coming through.”

Whether these changes are everyone’s cup of tea is a different matter.

• Michael Burry just started a group chat open to all of his paid subscribers on Substack.
• The chat quickly filled with jokes, memes, videos, and questions for Burry.
• The investor of “The Big Short” fame has pivoted from running a hedge fund to writing online.

Michael Burry‘s group chat is going off.

The investor of “The Big Short” fame invited all of his paid subscribers to a group chat on Friday, and it quickly led to hundreds of replies ranging from memes to questions for Burry.

This month, Burry pivoted from running a hedge fund to publishing a Substack named “Cassandra Unchained.” It has amassed more than 97,000 subscribers since it launched on Sunday.

“This is a conversation space exclusively for paid subscribers—kind of like a group chat or live hangout,” reads Burry’s introductory post. “I plan to post updates that come my way, and you can jump into the discussion.”

The first reply on the chat reads: “I think Dr. Burry just broke Substack.”

Another early response jokes about Burry’s disclosure this week that he owns bearish put options on Nvidia and Palantir stock: “I think Dr Burry is going to make more money from Substack than his NVDA and pltr puts 🤣”

A third poked fun at a potential spike in traffic to Substack. “Someone pray for substacks backend engineers.”

“It’s gonna be legendburry!!” one subscriber wrote, while another noted: “This chat is gonna be nuts.”

“Bro don’t allow anyone to start threads. This a spam fest,” one concerned poster added.

Other subscribers rushed to post memes, videos, and even photos of Black Friday crowds. The questions to Burry ranged from who the next chair of the Federal Reserve might be, to how an 80-year-old should invest to prepare for a crash, to how the dollar stacks up against other currencies.

Burry resurfaced on X in late October after more than two years of silence, and has wasted no time issuing numerous warnings of an AI bubble and taking aim at key players such as Nvidia and Palantir.

The investor, who has 1.6 million X followers, is best known for predicting and profiting from the collapse of the US housing bubble that triggered a global financial crisis, and for issuing dire pronouncements of crashes and recessions.

He became famous in financial circles after his bet against the subprime mortgage market was featured in author Michael Lewis’ book “The Big Short,” and actor Christian Bale played him in the movie adaptation.

• The restaurant industry is under pressure as consumers cut back.
• Rising prices and tighter budgets are affecting where people eat.
• Casual dining spots like Chili’s are booming, while pricey salad chains like Sweetgreen flounder.

Have you recently given up your salad-bowl lunch habit? You’re not alone.

Many American consumers are feeling the pinch, and it’s affecting how they shop, and where and how often they dine out.

Consumer sentiment is down, job cuts are on the rise, and dining out has become pricier as operators contend with higher labor, ingredient, and rent costs.

People are looking for value — but not necessarily the cheapest option — through loyalty perks, portion sizes, and perceived quality.

Here’s a look at some of the chains that are — and are not — benefiting from this:

What’s in: Casual dining, packed lunches

Millennials tried their best to kill off casual dining chains, but the next generation is helping bring them back.

Chili’s has been leading the way here and outperforming rivals like Applebee’s. The Tex-Mex chain, which also serves American classics like burgers and fries and is owned by Brinker International, reported a 21% surge in sales for the most recent quarter.

Analysts say it was quick to capitalize on rising fast-food prices, offering deals such as its $10.99 Big Smasher burger.

It also simplified its menu and overhauled its marketing to speak to younger diners. Gen Zers seem to be lapping up its content and are making viral videos about its menu items.

At the same time, tighter budgets and hybrid working have also been reshaping midday dining.

Pricier lunch spots, such as Chipotle, said they are losing out as people choose to eat at home more.

“For occasions like lunch, people are substituting things like eating at home, bringing in food from home, or finding cheaper local alternatives,” GlobalData Retail analyst Neil Saunders told Business Insider.

Lower-cost grocery chains may be benefiting from this. Walmart’s imminently departing CEO Doug McMillon said the chain is continuing to gain market share in grocery and grow its higher-income shopper base.

What’s out: $15 salads

The “slop bowl” chains are having a tough time right now.

Execs from Chipotle, Cava, and Sweetgreen all said in recent earnings calls that they’re seeing fewer visits from millennial and Gen Zers.

“The whole salad scene has dissipated,” Phil Kafarakis, CEO of IFMA, The Food Away From Home Association, told Business Insider.

They’ve “tripped up over themselves because their economics and pricing don’t fit the consumer that they were really so close to,” he added.

Sweetgreen’s CFO said in the company’s most recent earnings call that spending from the 25 to 35 age group, 30% of the chain’s consumer base, was down 15% in the recent quarter as this cohort came under pressure.

The challenge now is figuring out how they address their pricing, knowing that their core demographic can’t afford it, Kafarakis said.

Investors appear to be wary as well. Sweetgreen’s stock price is down over 80% this year.

What’s mixed: fast food

“Trading down” has become the buzzword of the retail sector right now, as shoppers switch up their routines to find cheaper alternatives.

McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski suggested in the company’s most recent earnings call that the fast-food sector is seeing an impact from this, as traffic from higher-income diners grows.

It’s a double-edged sword, however, as the industry is also seeing a decline in traffic from lower-income diners, he said.

“We continue to see a bifurcated consumer base,” Kempczinski said.

We “remain cautious about the health of the consumer in the US — and believe the pressures will continue well into 2026,” he added.

• The inaugural Stissing House x Substack Pie Fest took place in November.
• There were 33 pies entered for 14 judges — including Martha Stewart — to choose from.
• According to James Beard award-nominated chef Clare de Boer, judges were between two pies.

I’ve been living in the US for 15 years, and there’s one thing I really look forward to during the holidays: pies.

I’m always looking forward to having my favorites (apple pie is at the top of the list) and trying new ones brought by friends and family.

Now I have a new one to add to that list: the salted maple bourbon pie that Martha Stewart chose as the 2025 winner for the Stissing House x Substack Pie Fest.

The instructions are intimidating, but it sounds delicious

Nikki Freihofer describes her now-famous pie as “a pancake breakfast that grew up.”

As someone who barely knows how to bake, I find the instructions a bit more intimidating than making pancakes.

The ingredients include a solid dose of high-quality bourbon, such as Bulleit, to impart a distinctive boozy flavor. (When she announced the winner, Stewart joked that she could’ve used more booze, but it sounds like plenty to me!)

The crust is pretty classic, though it has some spoonfuls of vodka in it, and it’s all topped off with a vanilla mascarpone whip.

If you opt to make the whole pie from scratch, it requires starting with the crust the night before, as freezing overnight is recommended. And once all the steps are complete, it’s recommended that the pie rest for four to six hours before concluding the process with a generous sprinkle of flaky Maldon sea salt.

Freihofer also described her pie as “the kind of thing people take one bite of and immediately start plotting their second,” and I’m already planning to give it a try.

Take a look at the recipe, which Substack shared after the event.

• Cheez-It released a Build It Yourself Holiday House Kit for festive snack lovers.
• The kit includes cheese-flavored cookies, Cheez-Its, frosting, and candy decorations.
• Building the Cheez-It house is fun and quirky, offering a unique twist on holiday traditions.

It’s the holiday season, which means it’s the kick-off to building the traditional gingerbread houses for many families. I used to do this all the time as a kid growing up in the Midwest — it was just a normal part of the season.

I haven’t really kept up the tradition as an adult, though. This year, I decided to give it another go for the first time in ages, but while I’m still making a holiday house out of food, it’s not going to be made of gingerbread.

Enter Cheez-It’s new Cheez-It Build It Yourself Holiday House Kit. Yep, you read that right. It’s a holiday kit to make a house made of Cheez-Its. When a friend posted this on his Facebook page, I felt compelled to try it.

I had no idea what was in store at the time.

The kit was harder to find than I expected

I ordered one from Walmart online. It was supposed to cost under $16 for a single pack before shipping, but by the time I checked out, it came to about $35 — Walmart resellers had already snatched them up and driven the price up. About a week later, the kit finally arrived.

When I opened the box, I found two snack-sized packets of Cheez-Its, a bag of frosting, some candy bits in the shapes of holiday items (a gingerbread-looking person, a round dot, and candy canes), and a sealed platform with some orange cookie house parts.

There were a total of five separate types of pieces inside. It was unclear if the white bag of frosting contained sugar or white cheddar cheese.

Building the house was easy

I recruited a friend to join in on the fun, and the first thing we did was flip the kit over to see if there were any instructions. There was a QR code that linked to a short video, so we watched that before getting started. It walked us through the assembly and showed a few examples from other people’s kits — most of them looked like more traditional cookie houses. With some guidance and a bit of inspiration, we were finally ready for the real fun to begin.

I opened the platform that came with the orange cookies. The box said they were cheese-flavored, and while I wasn’t ready to taste anything yet, I was curious — so I gave one of the house pieces a sniff. I can confirm it smelled exactly like cheese and cookies. A faint mix of cheddar and sugar cookie sweetness.

The kit instructed me to massage the frosting packet before opening it, so I did. And once I squeezed some out, I realized it was just like the frosting in a regular holiday house kit — more like cake icing than anything resembling cheese.

The kit instructed us to use the frosting to put the orange cookie house together first. This was done by taking the frosting and connecting the house pieces together. There was a piece of the house that needed to be broken off to help the roof be put in place. That piece was used to make a chimney. I had to hold the roof together for a few minutes before the rest of the house could be created.

After the house was put together, it was just a matter of adding the finishing touches with the decorations. This meant using the frosting to put Cheez-Its and the other candy bits onto the house.

We had leftovers after building the house

We started getting the hang of things at this point, and there seemed to be a lot more Cheez-Its than we needed. We could have probably used more candy bits.

The finished house only used one pack of Cheez-Its. I had plenty of leftover frosting afterward, which I put on some Cheez-Its to taste. While the frosting (which was akin to cake-type frosting on a pastry strudel) was sweet, it didn’t taste incredibly weird paired with the Cheez-Its. It wasn’t the worst, but it wasn’t the best, unlike the apple pie-flavored mac and cheese from Kraft I tried earlier this month, which was delicious.

Even though the whole thing felt a little ridiculous, I didn’t think it was the worst project I’d ever worked on. It still had most of the usual elements you’d find in a typical holiday house kit. It was basically the same process — just with Cheez-Its added into the decorating mix.

When you really think about it, Cheez-Its — strange as they may sound (and look) — aren’t all that outlandish. I’ve made gingerbread houses with pretzels before, and when you compare the salty crunch of the pretzels to the sweetness of the gingerbread, it’s not much different.

In the end, it was a fun activity to get my friends and me started on the festive season together.